Rudy, your advice is excellent, I agree with all the points you made but would offer a counter viewpoint on one thought behind it. In order for bladesmith in the modern world to advance, and make the shift to maximizing the materials that we have to work with, we need to make the separation of ourselves from our ancient predecessors. Due to the vast difference in materials, the appeal to ancient success without contemporary tools often gets in the way of our advancement with modern materials. My favorite mantra that I use to embody the entire concept is “alloying changed everything”. Before the advent of intentional alloying in the early 19th century, the human eye was often all the tools you needed to get exactly what you wanted out of a simple iron/carbon alloy, but shortly after that turning point you also see the increasing use of the high falutin tools. The new alloys began to necessitate the new tools and in a circular system the new tools allowed the development if more complex alloys. I have worked with both ancient and modern alloys and they really are apples and oranges, allowing entirely different approaches. In this discussion the closest to those ancient steels are the 10XX series and they are still remarkably different. Forgive me for the one counterpoint that I offer in all of the good advice, I just feel it important that people be aware of this huge contributing factor to new approaches to heat treating in modern times.
Now forgetting all that Rudy has some good advice, and I think we need to set the solid goals before we determine what is necessary to achieve them. I am reading conflicting descriptors of the desired product, i.e. a great knife vs. a satisfactory knife. This is the heart of many unfortunate debates on this forum and others. Unless it is clearly specified otherwise, I always assume those asking for my input are looking for advice to make the best possible knife and not merely satisfactory results. To avoid making enemies instead of friends I have had to train myself on how to help folks make satisfactory knives since I am wired in such a way that I didn’t know how to aim for anything less than the best possible results.
If you cannot afford to get an oven, you cannot afford it, knives are just knives, the home and family comes first. If however I had to choose between a mammoth tusk and an oven, an excellent blade with a micarta handle is a heck of a lot better for both me and the customer. Of the two steels mentioned, the 10XX series has a better chance of giving you either a satisfactory or great knife in just a forge. 5160 could be one of the greatest examples of the placebo effect I have seen, enough people have been told of its miraculous qualities, that I honestly don’t think this borderline medium carbon steel could ever perform poorly enough for people realize it. This is too bad because it really can make a very good chopper, that could far exceed its usual performance, if it is heat treated carefully.
The fact is that without well-constructed testing approaches and well defined standards any definition of performance is too subjective to say anything is worth the extra effort. However, may I suggest another consideration altogether- control for the sake of your well-being rather than the blades. The efficiency of simply putting blades in an oven and then working on other things while the equipment does the work for you, as opposed to continually handling and working the blade up to temp in a forge, should not be dismissed out of hand. But this is minor compared to the knowledge that every blade was heated exactly the same, when it comes time to troubleshoot this variable is accounted for, blades done one at a time in the forge add countless possible deviations, ovens don’t get distracted, tired or just have bad days. But in the end, truth be told, I have seen people rave over knives that I knew the heat treat was way off on due the description the maker gave of the process and the results. So like it or not what constitutes acceptable or great will most often come down the personal standards of the maker.
Jon, a telltale sign about you to aid in my advising you is your abandonment of the hamon for not meeting your standards- this is huge! Very few in the business right now would abandon the wildly popular aesthetics of the hamon for a functional property gain, that tells me that your standards are geared toward a path that “satisfactory” will soon not be compatible with; one that I am all too familiar with. Here is where Rudy’s three year concept is a winner, so I say start saving your money for the oven, but don’t pull the trigger just yet. Learn the art of heat treating simple steels with your hands and eyes first so that when you get that oven it will be an even more powerful tool in very capable and knowledgeable hands. Without that experience advanced tools are just crutches, with it they are efficiencies that allow you to take things to the next level.